September 25th, 2021

Libya Agreement 2015

By JEREMY WARNE

Many in the first camp were overly optimistic about accepting an agreement imposed on recalcitrant groups. The focus on eliminating ISIS in Syrte, which they hoped would set the anti-jihadist credentials of Misratan`s forces for states like Egypt, which have long argued that Haftar was the only leader to host him with jihadists, overshadowed other factors. [fn] Crisis Group interviews, Egyptian diplomats, military, Cairo, New York, June 2015-May 2016. Egyptian officials say jihadist groups have ties to some armed groups in western Russia, particularly some powerful Tripoli-based groups on which the Presidential Council depends. Crisis group interview, Egyptian diplomat, May 2016. According to security officials and Libyan residents in areas formerly under IS control, many Egyptians were in the ranks of ISIS. Crisis Group Interviews, secret service officers, Misrata residents, Ben Jawwad, October 2016.Hide the footnote The risk that the agreement`s roadmap could be implemented even without the support of the HoR underestimated the extent to which opponents could take advantage of it to win support in the East. It has been easy to portray the United Nations as biased, which has hampered its impartial role as a mediator. Conversely, those who supported Haftar and undermined an agreement on which they made statements in the air arrived at the process of slippage, but did not provide constructive alternatives.

If they want to maintain a united Libya and prevent the conflict from evolving into a worse confrontation, they must set limits on their client. The most committed permanent members of the Security Council – the United States, the United Kingdom and France – particularly urged the United Nations to conclude the agreement. It has also been crucial for Libya`s neighbors, including governments in southern Europe, who are concerned about threats spreading in a security vacuum. Even states skeptical of implementation such as Russia and Egypt have insisted that the deal be continued. All argued that the talks were at an impasse and could be derailed by reports of a clear conflict of interest over the recently emerging former UN envoy León and growing political fragmentation. [fn] Crisis Group interviews, Western diplomats, Washington, London Tunis, Paris, October-November 2015; UN officials, New York, October-December 2015. According to Kobler, at a conference in Algiers in November, Libya`s neighbors “put the most pressure on stabilizing the country.” Crisis Group interview, Brussels, December 2015. “Egypt Sisi calls for `international mobilization` for Libya”, Agence France-Presse, 8 December 2015. ISIS`s threats to strike Rome from Libya have pushed Italy to go harder. Two days before a conference at which internationals backed the deal, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed skepticism about power-sharing, but said Russia would support it.

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